EUCOM Adaptation Decision Helper — Location/Mode + Methodology

EUCOM Adaptation Decision Helper

Separate Location and Mode, with a transparent computational methodology and optional historical calibration.

Inputs

Trigger Event

Severity (1–5)

Budget Δ (USD, +/–)

Manpower Δ (billets/FTE)

Tempo Change %

Narrative/PAO Risk (1–5)

Mode

Location / Node

Evidence / Artifacts

Divisions Impacted (J-codes)

Mission Areas

Saved locally in your browser.

Decision

—

Awaiting input…

Recommended Tasks

Audit Trail

Field	Value

Indicators & Definitions

Import Definitions (JSON)

Historical Conditions

Load past events to calibrate thresholds (optional). CSV headers: when,trigger,severity,budget_delta,manpower_delta,tempo_pct,narrative_risk,mode,location,divisions,missions,outcome_level

Upload CSV

Calibration: If enabled, thresholds for Monitor/Mitigate/Reallocate/Escalate are set from the distribution of historical scores by outcome.

Use historical calibration

When	Trigger	Loc	Mode	Sev	Δ$	ΔFTE	Tempo%	PAO	Outcome	Score*

* Score computed with current weights.

Saved Cases (local)

When	Trigger	Location	Mode	Decision	Score

Computational Methodology

Base Score: S = w_sev*sev + w_budget*f(budget) + w_man*g(manpower) + w_tempo*tempo + w_pao*narrisk
Mode Multiplier: S ← S * m(mode) with Rail=1.10, Air=1.20, Sea=1.15, Road=1.00, Pipeline=1.10, Port=1.15, Multimodal=1.20.
Location Bump: if location matches a critical node list (e.g., “Hamburg”, “Ramstein”, “Rota”, “Incirlik”, “Grafenwöhr”, “Powidz”) then S ← S + 5.
Clamp & Normalize: S is clamped to [0, 100].
Decision Thresholds (default): Monitor <35, Mitigate 35–59, Reallocate 60–79, Escalate ≥80.
Historical Calibration (optional): If enabled, thresholds are recomputed using percentiles of historical scores for each outcome bucket to match past outcomes.
Task Mapping: Trigger → task set (CBxx) with short labels for actioning.

Budget function f() emphasizes cuts over increases; manpower function g() emphasizes shortfalls over growth (asymmetric risk).